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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd